FOOTBALL
********
OPPOSE REDS AT A TASTY 5/1
After the double dose of internationals this week, there could be some
value in opposing the teams stuffed with returnees this weekend, and, in
particular, Liverpool should be opposed against Blackburn. Liverpool are
unattractive favourites at 8/13, while Blackburn's price of 5/1 could be a
shade on the generous side. Blackburn are on a high right now, coming off
their win at old Trafford, while Liverpool come into this off a run of
three draws and a defeat. So, a result for Rovers is more is more likely
than the odds suggest. They can also be supported (with even more
confidence) on the Asian Handicap at 2.00, where they receive a
three-quarter goal start.
MACKEMS GREAT VALUE AT 11/2
United could also be vulnerable this weekend against Sunderland, especially
now the Mackems have got the monkey off their back with a 2-0 win at
Middlesbrough. Since securing their first Premiership win in 27 games,
they've gone three games unbeaten and could be over-priced at 11/2 to win
their first home game of the season. Again, they look more worthy of
support on our Asian Handicap at 1.875 (+ 1 goal), which consistently
offers bettors great value. At the same time Stephen Elliot (a recent
scorer for Ireland) looks a fair bet at 9/1 to open the scoring, especially
considering we'll give you your money back if he scores the last goal in
the game instead.
VISITORS CAN HAMMER OUT RESULT AT 3/1
Su Oct 16 - 4:00 pm ko (SS1)
For the same reasons as the above, there would have been grounds for
opposing Arsenal (v West Brom) and Chelsea (v Bolton) this weekend, if only
their opponents were more convincing. Instead, we'll lump on West Ham at
3/1 to get a result at the City of Manchester Stadium. After a bright
start, the Citizens have come back down to earth recently with a defeat at
home to Bolton, an early exit in the Carling Cup at the hands of Doncaster,
and a loss against Newcastle. On the other hand, a particular good run of
results away from home has made pre-season odds on relegation quotes for
the Hammers look silly, and they'll be hard to beat again this Sunday (Live
'In-Play' betting available on up to 14 markets).
In other games this weekend, Wigan, whose form looks far more convincing
than Newcastle's, look worthy of support at 8/5, while Tottenham are good
things at 8/13 to beat Everton. A £10 acca on our five fancies this weekend
pays out £6552, which includes a bet365 bonus of 10%. Good luck.
HORSE RACING
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REVO TO BE CES KING AT 14/1
Saturday is Champions Day at Newmarket, and one of the betting highlights
is the Cesarewitch Handicap (3.10), the second leg of the Autumn Double. As
crazy as it might sound, the draw often plays a part in this 2m 2f
marathon, with a definite bias towards a middle to high berth. In the past
ten years, stall 17 and higher has provided eight winners and 26 placed
horses, but in the hope of getting a decent draw (anything in double
figures will do), we'll be pinning our hopes on the potentially
well-handicapped King Revo.
If I had to pick one horse guaranteed to make the frame, then it would be
Pat Haslam's charge, who has already looked unfortunate not to win a couple
of major handicaps this term. Those runs could be in his favour now, as he
looks nicely weighted off a mark of just 85 (141 over hurdles). At York in
June, he met with all sorts of trouble when eighth in the Ascot Stakes,
while he had to overcome the widest draw before finishing fourth in the
Chester Cup, so there's definitely a big flat handicap in him. A recent run
at Haydock should have put him spot on for this and, with the yard in good
form, he looks a great each-way bet at the current 14/1.
Cesarewitch Pick: King Revo at 14/1
O'BRIEN HAS NO PEERS AT ½
The destiny of the UK Flat trainers title could be decided this weekend,
with Aidan O'Brien the strong favourite at 1/2 to wrestle back the crown he
last held in 2001. O'Brien holds all the aces in the two-year-old
department with no less than eight entries in the Dewhurst Stakes (2.35),
while he also supplies the 11/4 antepost favourite for the Champion Stakes
in the shape of Oratorio (3.10). The latter looks to have a great chance of
adding to his wins in the Eclipse and the Irish equivalent of this race.
Michael Stoute, O'Brien's nearest challenger for the title at 6/4, has
chances too in the shape of Peeress, who drops back in class for the
Challenge Stakes (2.05), and Short Skirt, who hosed up on her only start to
date, and looks well worth the step up in class in the Rockfel Stakes
(4.25). However, with a further 13 entries in next week's Racing Post
Trophy (Stoute has none), O'Brien looks nailed on for the title. With all
four of the above races to be shown live on Channel 4, bet365 customers can
take advantage of our fantastic Channel 4 Offer. Back a winner at 4/1, or
bigger, and we'll give you a free bet (up to £50) on the next live race on
the Channel.
bet365 customers can watch the remainder of the Newmarket card via our new
'Bet & Watch' service, which allows you to watch EVERY race in the UK and
Ireland live. Just bet £5 with us to take advantage of this service - why
bet anywhere else!
GOLF
****
CRANE IS YOUR MICHELIN MAN AT 33/1
Th Oct 13 - 21.00 BST (SS2)
Fr Oct 14 - 21.30 BST (SS2)
Sa Oct 15 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
Su Oct 16 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
Last week's pick, Sergio Garcia (3rd at 25/1), would have won if he's sunk
a few more putts and, with scoring bound to be low this week on the
wide-open resort courses, this week's winner is likely to a player with a
hot flat stick. Another key to success this week will be patience, with
four balls including two amateurs expected to produce rounds in excess of 6
hours. As one of the slowest players on Tour, that will suit Ben Crane down
to the ground, and at a standout bet365 price of 33/1 (35/1 Enhanced Win
Only Odds) he must enter calculations this week. That price looks even more
attractive when you factor in his two top-20's here in the past three
years, and the fact that he's shown promise in pro-ams before.
The more 'relaxed' style of golf this week should also suit the personality
of Shigeki Maruyama, who has no course form to speak of (he's rarely played
here), but who comes into this week in great nick. Last week's opening 74
was his worst round in his last 16, during which period he's posted ten
rounds in the 60's to stand at 33 under par! That form should come as no
surprise as his three October events last year yielded finishes of 16th,
19th and 2nd (1st and 3rd in 2003). As he's currently 35th on the Money
List, he'll be keen to play himself into the top-30 this week to guarantee
entry into the season-closing Tour championship and, in his current form,
he looks a great each-way bet at 33/1 this week.
Another player to catch the eye this week is Carl Pettersson. Like
Maruyama, Pettersson is a late season performer, having finished in the
top-10 in no less than four of the five events to end in October last year.
He was also fourth in last month's Deutsche Bank Championship against a
much stronger field than this, where he held the lead after 54 holes. As
one of the finest putters on Tour, he could well go low this week, and
looks worth an interest at a tasty 66/1. Don't forget, once the first round
gets under way, we'll have live betting via our 'In-Play Console', which
also includes prices on the current Round Leader.
Nigel's Michelin Championship Three Off The Tee: Ben Crane 33/1; Shegeki
Maruyama @ 33/1; Carl Pettersson @ 66/1 (Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5.)
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel
NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many years,
believes that "The key to successful gambling is getting value for money."
Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping column
in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune. Find out what
offers and lines are hot at bet365.com
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